Tuesday, May 01, 2007
I swear, it's not what it looks like
After one month, things looks crappy for the Cubs. They sit at 10-14 and are tied for last place in the division, 5.5 back of the Brewers. Carlos Zambrano has only had two good starts all year. Alfonso Soriano has driven in one run. The entire Cubs outfield has hit two home runs all year. The team finished April with an 0-6 record in one-run ballgames.
Wait.
That last stat. The 0-6 in one-run games part. That's a good thing. Really, I swear.
It's something that's always criticized by fans as a measure of several things (usually "clutch" or a team's bullpen) and used as a big measuring stick. They are right that it's a big measuring stick. It measures luck.
And that's why things aren't as bad as they look for the Cubs. History has shown that teams are likely to finish right around .500 in one-run ballgames -- the variables are so close that it just comes down to random chance. So far this year, the Cubs have had awful luck. If they had gone just 3-3 (the normal distribution) in those games, they'd have a 13-11 record. And there wouldn't be nearly as much panic in Chicago.
Another reason for optimism is the difference between runs scored and runs allowed. All a team can do is try to score as many runs as possible and allow as few as possible; how those are distributed across different ballgames is generally a matter of chance. The first-place Brewers have outscored their opponents by just three runs on the season. The Cubs have outscored their opponents by 21 runs. That's a pretty big statistical difference. In fact, the only teams in baseball that have a larger run differential are the Red Sox, Mets and Blue Jays.
So with all that, it's likely to get better for the Cubs, and it's likely to get better soon. I have a feeling that the Brewers will hang around all year because they have a nice balance of pitching and hitting, but they aren't going to run away with the division. In fact, no team will run away with the division, because there isn't anything in the Central that resembles a dominant team.
There's your hope, Cubs fans. Sorry that it's based in numbers and nerdiness.
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They're still shitty.
haha! guess you're eating your words now, huh?