Tuesday, February 06, 2007
This is just ridiculously early
Football's over. And I'm sort of glad, because that means that baseball is up next, and that's what really matters. So I present to you JR and Eli's way-too-early picks (have I mentioned that it's the first week of February?!) for the upcoming major league baseball season. So sit back and read all about baseball, a full month before you even wanted to. Sigh. This could take a while.
American League East Winner
JR says: Toronto
Why not start as irrationally as possible? They were 10 games behind the Yankees for the top spot last year, but very quietly took second in the East, a game ahead of Boston. I simply love the way they are building their team, taking low-risk flyers on folks like John Thomson and Tomo Ohka, both extremely quality pitchers if they're healthy. Roy Halladay is a freak when healthy, and I sense a bit of a comeback season from AJ Burnett. Their infield is underwhelming, but their outfield has potentially two frontline studs in Wells and Rios, and having Frank Thomas in the middle of the lineup will compensate for any power shortage from the infield. The Yankees might have the best outfield in baseball, but they're quickly becoming the aging San Francisco Giants of the East, and their pitching staff is becoming devoid of surefire wonders. But who am I kidding, they'll probably win the East.
Eli says: Boston
It only makes sense. The team wasn't that far away last season, and they've had the best offseason of any American League team. I won't deny that there are potentially serious bullpen issues, but the starting rotation is headlined by Curt Schilling, Jon Papelbon, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. All four of those pitchers have No. 1 starter potential. And how can Boston be mentioned without the offense? JD Drew is an OBP monster and will fit nicely among Manny and Ortiz. Don't forget, Julio Lugo, Kevin Youkilis, Coco Crisp, Jason Varitek and Wily Mo Pena are all threats in the lineup. If Boston adds Roger Clemens mid-season, it's all but over. Toronto gets some sleeper consideration, but I don't think they have the offensive talent to match up with the other clubs in the division. Especially Baltimore. What?
American League Central Winner
JR says: Detroit
I had every intention of dogging the Tigers' chances of doing what they did in 2006, but they still have one thing that I'm not convinced the other teams in the crowded Central have: pitching. Joel Zumaya has sophomore slump written all over him, especially if he keeps playing Guitar Hero, but Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson and Maroth are still around, with some peak years among them, and Kenny Rogers and Jose Mesa will give plenty of wise sage advice where necessary. Virtually nothing from last year's team has departed, whereas I'm not in love with any of the other Central pitching staffs (Minnesota has the guns, but RAMON ORTIZ?). Sleeper to watch is the one disappointing team last year: Cleveland.
Eli says: Minnesota
The Twins were the best team in this division -- by far -- after June last year, and I only expect it to continue into this season. The pitching staff is headlined by not only the best 1-2 punch in baseball, but possibly the best two pitchers in baseball. Yes, I think Francisco Liriano is that good (Postscript: he's also a big pansy and is missing the 2007 season without telling me; everything I have written above is rendered moot, unless you want to say that Johan Santana and Boof Bonser are the best 1-2 punch in baseball. And sure, why not? All hail Boof!). The bullpen is anchored by rock-solid Joe Nathan and a cast of strong setup men. And the offense, which was fine last season, is young and continually improving. If Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau continue to improve, the Twins could grow into the best team in baseball. The White Sox and Tigers are going to continue to regress, and neither club did enough in the offseason to improve. In fact, it appears as if the White Sox got worse. On purpose. That should be a fun summer on the South Side.
American League West Winner
JR says: Anaheim.
Nothing solid other than a hunch here. Vlad Guerrero was obviously not fully healthy last year, else his numbers would have been closer to the insane career norms he has. Pitching had injury problems, namely to Bartolo Colon, and I like how this team has proven veterans mixed in with one of the game's greatest farm systems. John Lackey is one of the best pitchers in baseball that nobody talks about.
Eli says: Oakland
Sure. It's true. I have a rabid, mostly heterosexual crush on Billy Beane. But it's hard to argue with the man's results since he took over in Oakland. The team just continues to get it done. They lost Barry Zito to a criminally insane contract, but I think they'll be able to overcome it; a staff headed by Dan Haren, Rich Harden and Joe Blanto isn't anything to sneeze at. Blanton had a miserable 2006 season and should rebound to post solid numbers. The offense is paced by the A's never-ending stable of young studs and they're counting on internal improvement to get them back into the playoffs. The return of Bobby Crosby at shortstop will help immensely. I won't totally rule out the Angels, not with Howie Kendrick being a threat to hit .330. With a .338 OBP. Okay, I'm sticking with the A's.
Wild Card
JR says: New York. (I'm not THAT stupid.)
Eli says: New York. (Too much offense to be left out.)
American League Awards
MVP: Travis Hafner, Cleveland (JR)
Alex Rodriguez, New York (Eli)
Cy Young: Johan Santana, Minnesota (JR)
Johan Santana (Eli)
Rookie of the Year: Matt Garza, Minnesota (JR)
Daisy Matsuzaka, Boston (Eli)
First to get steroid suspension: Delmon Young, Tampa Bay (JR)
Travis Hafner, Cleveland (Eli)
Breakout player: John Lackey, Anaheim (JR)
Alex Gordon, Kansas City
First manager fired: Sam Perlozzo, Baltimore (JR)
Ozzie Guillen, Chicago (Eli)
National League East Winner
JR says: Philadelphia
This assumes Ryan Howard avoids the post-breakout blues and continues to mash. Signing Chase Utley long term was a nice thing, and the thing I loved about the Phillies last year was that they performed well after trading away regulars like Bobby Abreu and David Bell (not that the latter one hurt all that badly). They seem to have a surplus of pitching (Myers, Garcia, Moyer, Hamels, Eaton, Lieber) that will pay off given an injury and they're solid across the board offensively.
Eli says: New York
David Wright says hello, JR. So do Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Tom Glavine and Billy Wagner. Lastings Milledge would also chime in, but he's getting ready to swing at every pitch thrown anywhere near him. It's tempting to pick against the Mets for being too old in certain areas, but the fact is that there's simply too much talent left on the roster to discount them yet. The rotation is a little bit thin, but they do have some high-upside depth in John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez. And for the record, since we're going with the early theme, I'm already picking the Marlins to win this division in 2008.
National League Central Winner
JR says: Houston
What a horrible division. I really want to pick the improved Brewers or the vastly improved (if not overpaying) Cubs, and I don't like Houston because their pitching is somewhat suspect after Roy Oswalt. Then again, they've had good luck with some stop gaps like Wandy Rodriguez and Taylor Buchholz in the past, and Roger Clemens could very well be on his way back in mid-May. Even if Carlos Lee is atrocious defensively, they have that masher in the middle of the order to accompany Berkman, and given their park, I would say the team will have its share of long balls. I almost pick this team as a de facto winner, even with perennial power St. Louis in the mix. Kip Wells will be their No. 3 starter on Opening Day. Not even Houston is in that big of a hole.
Eli says: Chicago
Well, I've gone and done it. After cursing this team for the past two years, swearing them off for good and muttering about picking a team with my brain and not my heart ... here I am. I'm picking the Cubs. But really, it's hard to argue that they don't have the most top-to-bottom talent in the division. They have three monsters in the middle of the order (Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano), and Jacque Jones, Matt Murton and Michael Barrett make nice complementary players. Hell, even Cliff Floyd serves a nice purpose, as long as he's healthy. The bullpen is stacked 1-6, with Ryan Dempster possibly being the worst pitcher in the 'pen. Carlos Zambrano is a stud, Rich Hill is ready to break out, and Ted Lilly provides efficient, solid innings. For the last two spots, the Cubs finally have depth, being able to choose from Jason Marquis, Mark Prior or Wade Miller to fill those. And, of course, the other part of the equation is that the rest of the division is terrible. But as the Cardinals showed last year, you just gotta get into the playoffs. And have a midget for a shortstop. In case you're wondering, Cesar Izturis is only 5-foot-7. And I hear he's been working on his grit all winter down in Venezuela.
National League West Winner
JR says: San Diego
It's going to be a spirited battle between the Padres and Dodgers. The latter has Penny, Lowe, Schmidt, Billingsley and Wolf with an impressive bullpen that includes Saito and Broxton. But the Padres have the best pitching in the league, with Peavy, Young, Maddux, Wells, Hensley, Thompson and Stauffer, along with bullpen studs Hoffman, Linebrink and Meredith. Throw in an extra Giles and you have some decent offensive positions ... but the problem is that nobody will be scared of their lineup unless Kevin Kouzmanoff and Adrian Gonzalez reveal themselves to be power-swatting studs. The Dodgers have slightly more to work with offensively.
Eli says: Los Angeles
This division also sucks. Man, every team I root for players in an inferior league. Cubs, Bears, Bulls. What's the deal? Anyway. Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Jason Schmidt and Chad Billingsley is a nice start to a rotation. Heck, the fifth starter spot is held by Randy Wolf, which was a brilliant risk by Ned Colleti --he could wind up being the best bargain of the offseason. In fact, it's entirely possible the Dodgers could have the best pitching in the National League this year (once again, the National League sucks). I would have L.A.'s chances better if they hadn't allowed Juan Pierre to be anywhere near their team, but they still have some offensive talent with Rafael Furcal, Andrea Ethier, Nomar Garciaparra and Luis Gonzalez. Haha. I'm just kidding about that last one. He's terrible.
Wild Card
JR says: New York. (Fine. I hate your team. But I love your players.)
Eli says: Philadelphia. (The National League is awful.)
National League Awards
MVP: David Wright, New York (JR)
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia (Eli)
Cy Young: Chris Young, San Diego (JR)
Carlos Zambrano, Chicago (Eli)
Rookie of the Year: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (JR)
Lastings Milledge, New York (Eli)
First to get steroid suspension: Daryle Ward, Chicago (JR)
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee (Eli)
Breakout player: Clay Hensley, San Diego (JR)
John Patterson, Washington (Eli)
First manager fired: Jerry Narron, Cincinnati (JR)
Clint Hurdle, Colorado (Eli)
Number of wins for Roger Clemens: 6 (JR)
8 (Eli)
Date of Ken Griffey Jr's year-ending injury: July 12 (JR)
June 2 (Eli)
Read or Post a Comment
Both of Eli's steroid suspensions were designed to upset me. Also, his picking the Cubs in the Central. Also, his smarmy charm.
*I* would have said smarmy charmy.
Now THAT'S smarm.
I want in on some of this Ken Griffey Junior action, too. Even if I come in late, is it ok to go with February 10th?
Correct me if I'm wrong here- but I was under the impression that Francisco Liriano was going to miss all of 2007 with arm trouble. Am I remembering that wrong?
What! I suppose this is what happens when you vow to not do any research for a blog post.
After taking 11 seconds to check on that, yes, you're right.
Well, I'll go ahead and make a note of that. I'll stick with the Twins anyway though.
I can't blame you for sticking with the twins- their stellar 2nd half was done in large part (through some of august and all of september) without Liriano last year. And fuck the Tigers. They didn't even win the division last season, don't forget. Also, Justin Verlander is due for tremendous drop after a rather pedestrian 2nd half (4.24 ERA after the break). Fuck the Tigers. I hate them.
Even though it breaks my heart to do so, can I be the first to worry publicly about Carlos Zambrano? His walks went up from 3.5 per 9 to 4.8 per 9, and his fly ball ratio went from 30 to 36%. I mean, a guy who walks more and more batters, and allows more and more fly balls is just asking for trouble. That and all the IP the past few years? It keeps me up at night.
Also, I would like to cast a vote for Eric Gagne as our first steroid suspension
My intense love affair for Twins pitchers tells me that Matt Garza will be almost everything Liriano was/would have been.
Good call on Gagne. What about teammate Sammy Sosa?
Daryle Ward and Prince Fielder kind of look alike.
I think that what JR is trying to say is that like waitresses, all fat black first baseman look alike.
I honestly couldn't tell the difference between Prince Fielder, Daryl Ward and Randall Simon if they were all wearing their jerseys backwards.
Now, we know who Ryan Howard is, right?
Is that because he's good?
Should we amend this to all "crappy, fat, black first basemen?" Though I guess Prince Fielder isn't crappy.
I'm so confused.
I'm going to operate under the assumption that reigning league MVPs are exempt from anonymity.