Thursday, February 01, 2007
Football for nerds
The folks over at Desipio have been running simulations of the Super Bowl on WhatIfSports.com, and it's been pretty interesting to see the results. The site allows you to match up any two teams -- from any era -- in a simulated game and see what the outcome would be. I thought I'd go ahead and try my own simulation for Sunday's game, and post the results here. No human seems to think the Bears can win, so what about a computer?
I set the game at Pro Player Stadium, of course, and since the forecast calls for rain, we're set at 65 degrees, occasional light rain and winds gusting up to 20 mph. Going from the box score, here's how Super Bowl XLI came out:
First quarter: Slow moving for game many thought would be high-scoring. Each team has two drives, and they end in punts. The Colts offense seems stagnant, never gaining more than a few yards at a time, if that. The Bears have some success moving the ball on the ground, but don't put anything on the board. However, the quarter ends with the Bears driving down behind Cedric Benson, sitting at the Indianapolis 13 as time expires.
Second quarter: The quarter opens with the Thomas Jones coming in and running for eight yards, and the Benson punching it in from 5 yards out for the score. The extra point is good and the Bears lead 7-0. The Colts, however, immediately answer on the next drive as Peyton Manning takes just four pass plays to score, ending in an 11-yard score to Marvin Harrison. Game tied, 7-7.
The Bears then respond by mounting a long drive that gets them down to the 11, where Robbie Gould boots a 28-yard field goal through the uprights. The key play is a 32-yard run by Cedric Benson, who is having a huge first half. Bears lead 10-7. The Colts once again respond, taking the ball downfield and settling for a 36-yard Adam Vinatieri field goal to knot the game at 10 with 1:47 left in the half.
The Bears, proving this is an extremely accurate simulation, go three-and-out on three inexplicable pass plays, giving the ball back to the Colts with plenty of time left. I will kill you, Ron Turner.
The Colts, behind Manning's arm, begin driving downfield. 14-yard pass to Dominic Rhodes, 10 yard out to Reggie Wayne. However, we get to glimpse Manning's playoff demons as he throws an interception to Lance Briggs at the Bears' 28. With just 11 seconds left, the Bears run out the clock. Lovie doesn't call a timeout with two seconds left.
Halftime score: 10-10.
Third quarter: The Bears open the second-half with some trickery, running a reverse to Bernard Berrian for a short gain. Grossman then nails Muhsin Muhammad for a 24-yard strike and the Bears are rolling. After a few short runs, Grossman proves everyone in the world right, and throws an interception to Mike Doss and the Colts take over.
The Colts don't take advantage of the turnover, and the teams trade punts. Then, with 6:39 left in the third, Charles Tillman picks off Manning and returns the ball to the Indy 47. Grossman promptly hits Muhammad for a 20-yard gain, and the Bears settle for a field goal. Bears 13, Colts 10.
Fourth quarter: Drama! The final quarter opens up with Manning hitting Wayne for an 18-yard gain. Joseph Addai follows with a 24-yard run to give the Colts 1st and goal. After a wasted screen pass to Harrison, Addai slips into the end zone and gives the Colts a 17-13 lead with 11:47 left in the game.
We see two Peyton Manning commercials on the simulated commercial break.
The Bears take the kickoff and return it to the 35 for good field position. Thomas Jones opens the drive with a big run, and Berrian hauls in a pass on the next play to give the Bears a chance for a field goal. The drive stalls, and Gould kicks through a 44-yard field goal to bring the Bears within one point, 17-16
The Colts go three-and-out and turn the ball back over the Bears with 6:37 remaining. Rex Grossman walks onto the field with a chance to pretty much shut up the world. He goes to work and hits Muhammad (again) for a 17-yard net. Then he drills Berrian in the numbers for a 19-yard gain. After a Thomas Jones' run gets the ball down to the Indianapolis 8, Grossman hits Berrian in the end zone for a touchdown. Eli dances around his living room, and the Bears go for the two-point conversion. They get it and now lead 24-17 with 2:03 left.
Is it John Elway time for Peyton Manning? Dan Marino time? Kordell Stewart time? God, I hope so.
The Colts get the ball back and the first play is a run by Rhodes for a four-yard gain. Addai then runs for another four yards to the Colts' 34. The Colts call timeout. Manning overthrows Dallas Clark on third down, and a run by Addai on fourth down isn't enough. Oops. Turnover on downs.
The Bears get the ball back and try to run out the clock for a Super Bowl win. Jones carries for no gain. Colts' timeout. On the next play, Jones takes a short pitch from Grossman and breaks through to score a game-sealing 39-yard touchdown.
Eli dances more. And more. And more and more and more.
Bears win, 31-17.
Read or Post a Comment
I refuse to read this post.
That's fine. You should be more worried about Brett Favre coming back to cripple your favorite team for another year.
Ummmm, Dec. 31, 2006. Packers 26, Bears 7.
And you're chastizing the Colts for losing to the Texans?
Seriously though, what evidence do sportswriters have from the past several seasons that a blowout Super Bowl is even possible anymore, LET ALONE dismissing a Bears team that steamrolled over New Orleans in the NFC title game.
Bottom line, it's a guaranteed close game. I don't know who wins, but there cannot be an odds-on favorite in the NFL's biggest game anymore.
It's Dolphins Stadium now. Silly computers!